ELECTION 2015 PATTERN

Theanalysis of the incumbent president returning as president in the comingelection seem to be a farce to reality.
Asa reminder, In 2011 the president was widely accepted and supported by almostall the geopolitical zones, the SW, SE, SS, NC, NE and NW.

Asits unfolding, a lot of voters from these zones are thoroughly disappointed bythe performances, corruptions and handling of urgent- cogent national mattersby the Commander in Chief. These obvious facts that stuck the face of the ruling party has cause some irrational decisions, prominent of it is the rescheduling of the general election.
Thusgo the analysis:

1.      The South West: Majority of voters, both educatedand uneducated are going to votes against the incumbent, while some who wouldhave voted for the president will abstain based on the aforementioned above.For this reasons, the votes accredited to the president in 2011 will fall farshort of what should be expected, also protest vote is also sure to emergeagainst him.

Note: The Ekitipeople will want to prove themselves as not been ‘for food only’. This is thestate where stomach infrastructure was coined for the Nigerian dictionary, alsowith the attitude of the Governor; it will be a repayment time.        
   
  
2.     North West and North East: Religion is a major issuein this zone. The campaigners of the incumbent have been using this already butto no effect. The northern Christians have seen the incumbent as incapable ofhandling their plight. Protest votes and abstinence will also be in play here.Therefore, the votes he was able to garner will drastically reduced.


3.     North Central: This region is a region where theincumbent should beat its opponents hands down not necessarily on theachievements but on religion sentiments. It is very obvious that this will nothappen, as the majority learned Christians in this area are not impressed withthe performance and the sky level corruption in his government.       


4.     South East and South South: These are region whichhigher level of election rigging will be perpetrated. This will be achievedbecause of low or no presence of oppositions. The incumbent is sure to win thisregion, but only half of those in possession of their permanent voter’s cardwill be willing to exercise their right, in both regions. In south East it is aknown fact that an average Igbo man seldomly participate in national activities,either they are occupied with their business or stay indoors if movement isrestricted. In the South South this will also apply as people will be scared ofmayhems and attacks from opposing parties. People not coming out to vote willoff course give room for the party with strong local base to engage in massiveelection rigging. In a free and fare election the president will receive halfof what was accredited to him in 2011.


By this theory;the only region the incumbent can garner much votes is the South East and SouthSouth. Also, the rancor of primaries election in PDP will play a huge part.This for sure will not be enough for him to return as president in 2015.